Democracy demands hostilities in Central African Republic cease hostilities
Xinhua News Agency, United Nations, February 27th (Reporter Lin Yuan) The UN Charter issued a statement on the 27th, demanding that armed groups in the territories of the Central African Republic cease all forms of hostilities, stating that it is possible for parties who do not comply with the agreement to comply with relevant provisions of the peace agreementTake internal measures. The statement said that at least members welcomed the progress made in the implementation of the Central African Republic after signing the peace agreement in the capital Bangui last February, but also expressed agreement on the delay in the implementation of some key provisions of the peace agreement and urged all signatories to fully complement their commitments. The statement said that members of the conflict have seriously violated the laws of the Central African Republic ‘s territorial armed groups in all parts of the country, especially in the north and east, in recent days, violating the peace agreement.Customary law also violates and tramples on workers and stops attacks on workers. In December 2013, the resolution passed a resolution deciding to impose an arms embargo on saboteurs of peace and stability in the Central African Republic.In January 2014, it may be decided to further implement sanctions on travel bans and asset freezes.Terrorism has since extended these sanctions.In January this year, the refractive index passed Resolution 2507, which extended sanctions against saboteurs of peace and stability in the Central African Republic until July 31, 2020. The situation in the Central African Republic has been volatile in recent years, and conflicts between local armed groups have continued.With the good offices of the international community, the security situation has improved.In February 2019, the Government of the Central 杭州桑拿网 African Republic and 14 armed organizations in the country officially signed a peace agreement.
Democracy demands hostilities in Central African Republic cease hostilities
Meijin Energy (000723): Stable deployment of coal coke business in the field of hydrogen energy
This report reads: Acquiring major shareholders to transfer coal mines to increase coking coal self-sufficiency rate, coking business still has room for expansion in the future, and actively deploying hydrogen energy business at the tuyere is expected to become the industry leader. Investment Highlights: Cover for the first time and give a “Neutral” rating.Predicting company 2019?EPS is 0 in 2021.48, 0.51, 0.53 yuan.The company’s current main profit still comes from the coking business. At present, it is estimated to be relatively high compared to the coking sector. However, given the vigorous development in the new energy field, if the subsequent profits can be released, it is estimated that there is room for improvement in the inventory, which will give the company 20 times in 2019.PE, corresponding to the target price of 9.60 dollars. Coking coal has a high self-sufficiency rate and has less cost fluctuations.The company currently owns Jinfu Coal Industry (180 / year, 100% equity, acquired in August 2018), Dongyu Coal Industry (150 / year, 100% equity), Fenxi Taiyue (210 sites / year,77% equity) The three main mines, with a total capacity of 540 and 492 equity, respectively.Based on the calculation of coke production in 659 in 2018, own mines can guarantee more than 60% of the demand for coking coal, which has a smaller cost change compared to other coking companies. The production capacity is leading in the province, and there is still room for expansion in the future.The company currently has 670 coking capacity (80 mg of Meijin Coking + 160 tons of Meijin Coal Coking + 180 tons of coal chemical + 150 tons of Tangjin Meijin) and meets advanced environmental protection standards.Shanxi Meijin Huasheng, a subsidiary of the company, will accelerate the development of high-standard new-type coke ovens and new materials projects with a production capacity of 400 tons per year. The company has first laid out the Qingxu Fine Recycling Industrial Park to accelerate the construction of the project. Standing on the tuyere, actively deploying the hydrogen energy business.Hydrogen energy, as an important part of the future energy system, is a development strategy of key national states.The company’s 四川耍耍网 coking business by-product produces a natural advantage in hydrogen, and is actively deployed in the industry chain. It currently holds Guohong Hydrogen Energy, a hydrogen fuel cell company9.09% equity, hydrogen energy car company Flying Spur Auto 51.20% equity.On March 23, 2019, the company and Jiaxing Pipe Cobalt Carbonate Cooperation Framework Agreement, Meijin Energy and other capitals plan to establish a hydrogen energy industry alliance, and invest in the construction of Meijin Hydrogen Automotive Industry Park in Xiuzhou District of Jiaxing City, and the overall planned land for the industrial park2000 mu, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan, the first-mover advantage will enable the company to break through the leading position in the industry. Risk warning: The reduction in coke business volume has an impact that 佛山桑拿网 exceeds expectations, and capital expenditures increase financial expenses excessively.
Enhua Pharmaceutical (002262) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Performance Meets Expectations Industrial Segment Maintains Rapid Growth
Core point of view The company’s performance is in line with market expectations. The overall growth of the industrial sector is relatively fast. The impact of right-hand procurement has improved. Pharmaceutical research and development has been steadily progressing. The allocation of booth costs has dragged down performance in the short term, and operating cash flow has achieved high growth.
The company’s performance is in line with market 南京桑拿网 expectations.
The company’s 2019Q1-3 realized revenue, net profit, and deducted non-net profit31.
98 billion, 5.
2.1 billion, 5.
21 trillion, ten years +10.
73%, including 2019Q3 single quarter revenue, net profit, deducting non-net profit twice +7.
21%, performance in line with market expectations.
The overall growth of the industrial sector is relatively fast, and the impact of right-handed procurement has improved.
The growth rate of the company’s single quarter growth rate has decreased. We believe that it is mainly due to the impact of the commercial sector (about 4%) and the high base last year. The industrial sector is expected to achieve a growth rate of more than 20%.
In terms of anesthesia products, you are expected to reorganize about 15% of dextromethacin, 武汉夜网论坛 but the company has strengthened the promotion of Liyuexi and Forli. It is expected that both varieties will achieve about 20% growth in the first three quarters. RuifenTaini and propofol are expected to achieve 60% and 20% growth respectively; spiritual products are expected to achieve an overall growth of about 25%, of which aripiprazole and duloxetine will achieve rapid growth of 90% and 45% -50%In terms of nerve products, Gabapentin is expected to achieve an increase of about 30% -32%.
The drug research and development work has been progressing steadily.
The company’s R & D expenses for 2019Q1-31.
27 ppm, +8 a year.
64%. For new products, penehyclidine has completed production site verification. Sufentanil and oxycodone supplementary data have been submitted. Dezocine is expected to be submitted by the end of November and is expected to be approved in the first half of next year.Go public.
In terms of consistency evaluation, dexmedetomidine, gabapentin, risperidone dispersible tablets, and chlorine-nitrogen-equivalent varieties have been declared. By the end of 2020, 19 core varieties have been evaluated for consistency.
In terms of research and development of innovative drugs, D20140305-1, pregabalin sustained-release capsules, and DP-VPA are in the clinical stage. Licensed product TRV-130 is expected to be produced directly in the United States after small-scale clinical supplementation in the country.
At the same time, the company will increase international cooperation in the research and development of innovative drugs, which is expected to successively date overseas innovative drug products.
Equity amortization expenses dragged down performance in the short term, and operating cash flow achieved high growth.
2019Q1-3 company’s gross profit margin short-term +6.
23 PCT, which is expected to be mainly due to the increase in industrial proportion.
Company Finance, Management, Sales Expense Rate Growth Rate +0.
05PCTs, in which management, the increase in sales expense ratio was mainly affected by equity amortization expenses (estimated 28 million).
2019Q1-3 Net operating cash flow of the company5.
64 trillion, +133 a year.
91%, mainly due to better control of receivables in the commercial sector.
Risk factors: the risk of drug price reduction or out-of-standard due to volume procurement; the progress of research and development is lower than expected.
Investment suggestion: The company’s core varieties will grow rapidly, and the products under development will be listed to contribute to the performance, and maintain the EPS forecast for 2019-2021 to 0.
95 yuan, with reference to comparable companies estimated to give the company 25XPE in 2019, corresponding to a target price of 16.
00 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.
New infrastructure projects such as investment in 5G networks that do not slow down under the war epidemic lag behind in the fast lane
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Source: Securities Daily reporter Su Shiyu The Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting on February 21 to study the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, and to plan and coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.
The meeting is held to actively expand effective demand, promote consumer replenishment and potential release, give play to the key role of effective investment, increase the start of new investment projects, and accelerate the progress of projects under construction.
Higher research and development support for reagents, drugs, and vaccines will promote the rapid development of biomedicine, medical equipment, 5G networks, and industrial Internet.
During the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the National Development and Reform Commission has repeatedly arranged investments in the central budget to support related project construction work and provide facility guarantees for resolutely winning the fight against epidemic prevention and control.
The National Development and Reform Commission pointed out that it will resolutely and thoroughly implement the Party Central Government and the State Council’s decision-making and deployment, effectively adjust and optimize the investment structure, and prioritize investment in the central budget to urgently needed projects for the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases such as emergency medical treatment facilities and isolation facilities in severely affected areas.We will resolutely win the fight against epidemic prevention and control to provide facilities.
From the time when the National Development and Reform Commission released the news, on January 26, according to the overall deployment of the Central Leading Group’s Working Group on Response to New Coronavirus Infection and Pneumonia, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an emergency investment of 300 million US dollars in the central budget in accordance with the joint prevention and control work mechanism.The construction of the Wuhan Vulcan Mountain Hospital and Wuhan Lei Shenshan Hospital for the treatment of patients with new-type coronavirus-infected pneumonia was subsidized for the purchase of important medical equipment to provide facilities for the realization of “centralized patients, centralized experts, centralized resources, and centralized treatment”.
On February 7, the National Development and Reform Commission urgently issued a second batch of 200 million U.S. dollars in the central budget to specifically subsidize the treatment of patients with severe infections. Tongji Hospital affiliated to Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Union Hospital Affiliated to Tongji Medical College of Huazhong University of Science and Technology, HubeiProvincial People’s Hospital for the construction of intensive care wards, focusing on the purchase of non-invasive ventilators, ECG monitors, bedside hemofiltration machine (CRMO), extracorporeal membrane oxygenator (ECMO) and other important medical equipment to ensure access to critically ill patientsCentralized and unified treatment, and strive to improve the cure rate and reduce mortality.
On February 16, the National Development and Reform Commission continued to arrange investments within the central budget2.
US $ 300 million to support Wuhan Fangcai Hospital to improve its facilities, add necessary medical equipment, and enhance the capacity of Fangcai hospital.
Large-scale enterprises are also actively responding to national calls to join the fight against epidemic prevention and control and strongly support the construction of hospitals.
According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, as of February 9, 2020, XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion Heavy Industry, Guangxi Liugong, Lingong Group, Tiejian Heavy Industry, Shanhe Intelligent, Anhui Heli, Xiamen Engineering, Doosan(China), Liebherr (China), Tietuo Machinery, Nuoli, Xingbang Heavy Industry, Jungheinrich, Wuhan Maxima, Mobil and many other industries have actively joined the construction of “Little Tangshan” hospitals across the country.
With the gradual resumption of production and resumption of production by enterprises in various regions, investment in construction of infrastructure projects has also begun.
Tang Chuan, expert of the Ministry of Finance’s expert database and research director of 360 Finance PPP Research Center, told the Securities Daily that the central government has clearly stated through policies and plans that it will further develop infrastructure projects, promote urbanization 北京桑拿洗浴保健 and the balanced development of various regions, so infrastructure projectsThe rapid landing will be the focus of investment in 2020.
And from the initial announcement of the national local debt issuance in January 2020, the scale of special debt is ten times that of general debt, which fully shows that the overall situation of economic development driven by infrastructure projects has been fully implemented from top to bottom.
Xu Guangrui, Executive Dean of National Future Science and Technology Research Institute, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter that according to the current resumption of key projects, this year’s infrastructure investment will focus more on supplementing shortcomings, especially after the epidemic.The “new infrastructure” represented by 5G, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, the Internet of Things, etc. will be accelerated, telemedicine, mobile medical terminals, smart manufacturing, cold chain logistics, smart rail transit, e-commerce, online education,The potential of Internet of Vehicles and other fields will be more fully released under the protection of “new infrastructure”.
Tang Chuan said that from the current layout of resumption of work, production-oriented industries, production materials supply companies, and consumer goods industries are the areas where the central government encourages resumption of work.
In fact, localities are still encouraging other business areas that do not require material exchange to continue to be online and individualized.
In addition to ensuring production, construction of smoothly-promoted traditional infrastructure projects such as energy, transportation, and water conservancy, 5G communication network construction, and logistics system upgrade and reconstruction, “new infrastructure” projects will also become the focus of development this year.
It is expected that in the future, development infrastructure investment will be promoted jointly from the government and the market.
In the government budget, it will continue to fully support investment and financing policies such as special debt, PPP policies, and credit concessions.
At the market level, the principles of basic design and policy encouragement will be followed, and funds will be concentrated in areas that provide new momentum for economic development, including new infrastructure, industrial parks covering science and technology infrastructure, and transportation infrastructure.
Xu Guangrui said that this year and in the next few years, infrastructure investment will continue to maintain the development trend of traditional infrastructure projects and new infrastructure projects. Therefore, there is still potential for development in the fields of transportation, energy, water conservancy, and medical care. Traditional foundationsThe facility has entered a mature and efficient development stage, and it still has a strong driving effect on the cement, steel and other industries. It has an axial underpinning effect on steady growth; instead, the epidemic has accelerated the whole society’s impact on smart cities, smart homes, smart transportation and smart energyWith the release of demand potential in areas such as smart manufacturing, “new infrastructure” will enter the fast lane and be guided by new actions such as new materials, new technologies, new processes, and new models to accelerate the development of the digital economy.
ETF issue market “curve” difficult to “overtake”
□ 杭州桑拿 China Securities Journal reporter Li Liang Index Fund has expanded rapidly in recent years, of which ETF is a dazzling variety.
The frequent appearance of 100M-scale ETFs has made this product with a variety of “instrumentation” characteristics quietly become the target of various fund companies.
An obvious phenomenon is that under the background that most wide-base index ETFs have been almost exhausted, the competition among many fund companies in ETF products is more centered on the idea of “overtaking in corners” and is focusing on tapping the market potentialIn the index that is tracked, more and more industry indexes and thematic indexes are confronted, among which too many indexes do have obvious customization traces.
However, from the perspective of actual results, in the competition of ETFs, it is difficult 深圳桑拿网 for “curves” to “overtake”.
Taking the data of the last two months as an example, wind data shows that from June 1 to July 31, the number of new ETF funds reached 20 during the two months, but the initial fundraising is a double-fire day: the topThe ETF’s initial fundraising has a scale of 7.2 billion, but the lower-ranked funds are hovering near the 200 million establishment red line, and some bad connected fund initial funds are only a few million.
The game was fierce Recently, the rich ETF CSI leader ETF raised 72 for the first time.
2 billion yuan, Huitianfu China Securities Securities Yangtze River Delta integrated development ETF first raised 64.
The news of US $ 2.9 billion in succession has certainly re-ignited the ambition of fund companies intending to play the ETF market.
The head of the quantitative market department of a Shanghai-based medium-sized fund company told reporters that from the perspective of overseas market experience, the maturity of the market has reached a certain stage, and the development of passive index products will inevitably set off a wave. As an instrument product, ETFs areIndex funds have more advantages and indeed deserve the vigorous development of fund companies.
However, he also pointed out that, unlike ordinary partial stock funds, the initial cost of building an ETF platform is higher for fund companies. Therefore, there must be sufficient scale effects to achieve sustainable development.
However, in the context of the excessive number of fund products, how to quickly reach the critical point of scale has become a pain point for many fund companies intending to develop ETFs.
In fact, in the existing ETF market, most of the high-quality index resources are divided up, such as the Shanghai 50 Index, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, and the GEM Index. There have already been billions of leading products, basicallyThe shape of the market.
Subsequent fund companies that issued such ETF products ended in bleak establishment. Solving the pain points can only find another way.
The differentiated layout of the index is a new strategy cited by some fund companies.
Relatively speaking, some sub-indices, such as industry indexes and theme concept indexes, have emerged endlessly, and fund companies have issued ETF products accordingly, hoping to achieve cornering overtaking through the layout of insufficient market segment competition.
However, from the actual situation, the previous data revealed that due to the small influence of these sub-indexes and the narrow audience, the issue of most such ETFs is not ideal.
The methods are different, but in another path, some fund companies still draw a new blueprint.
For example, the curtailment of holdings by listed company shareholders has become a new way for some fund companies to develop ETFs.
There is no doubt that a large number of ETF products that have been launched for the first time have a large number of large shareholders who actually “redeem” their stocks.
Because this ETF share obtained through single stock purchases can only be achieved in the ETF’s initial offering, to a certain extent, the “custom” taste of such new ETF funds is quite strong.
For fund companies, this method can achieve a win-win situation: shareholders of listed companies have realized substantial cash, and fund companies have obtained large-scale ETF products.
The use of market makers to activate the secondary market and the use of arbitrage opportunities in ETF transactions to attract capital substitution are also some of the strategies that ETFs can maintain to attract scale.
Someone said that for large funds, the activity of ETF secondary market transactions is very important, its “tool” function can be realized, and liquidity is a very important indicator, which will form a siphon effect, a large-scale ETFProducts will be favored by more institutional funds in the future.
Meinian Health (002044): The government’s policy of reducing and exempting corporate social security contributions will help the company resume normal operations quickly
Event: On February 18, Premier Li Keqiang hosted an executive meeting of the State Council to decide on the periodic reduction of corporate social insurance premiums and the implementation of the enterprise deferred payment of housing provident fund policy. Various measures were taken to stabilize the enterprise and secure employment.The policy is good for Midea Health, including the listed companies in the entire medical service sector. Analysis: 1.In the first half of the year, the company’s employee social security and other expenses pressures eased, orderly resumption of work, stable operation and guaranteed periodical reduction of corporate social security fees and implementation of the enterprise deferred payment of housing provident fund policies, including: 1) provinces outside Hubei Province, from February to JuneSmall and medium-sized enterprises can be exempted from paying old-age, unemployment, and work injury insurance units; in Hubei Province, from February to June, various types of participating companies can be exempted. 2) Before the end of June, enterprises can apply for deferred payment of housing provident fund.At the same time, the meeting recommended that scientific guidelines for prevention of epidemic resumption and resumption of production resume be issued as soon as possible, and guide localities to reasonably determine the conditions for resumption of resumption of production. The support of the above policies has alleviated the pressure on the employees’ social security and provident fund payment pressure in the first half of the year. The partnerships of Meinian’s branches comply with the policy of exempting social insurance and deferred payment of housing provident funds for 佛山桑拿网 medium-sized enterprises.As of the end of 2018, the total number of employees in listed companies reached 3.90,000 people, long-term payment of social security, about 1 provident fund.700 million, the annual payable in 2020 is expected to be more than 200 million, after some reductions and exemptions will be more conducive to the stability of the company’s operations and cash flow.At the same time, after Ali’s strategy enters the stock market, it will help Meinian build a big data-driven business mid-stage. The improvement of business efficiency and the replacement of employees’ quality and efficiency are also expected to bring about sales and decrease in management expense ratio.We judge that 2020 may be the year when the company’s volume, price and quality tripled and the expense ratio dropped. 2.No effort was spared to fight 北京夜网 the epidemic, Meinian showed its responsibility for social responsibility, and the company’s brand influence and reputation have been greatly enhanced. In the fight against the epidemic, Meinen went all out in disease prevention and control publicity, pneumonia screening, medical supplies and medical staff support.High efficiency, wide size, strong intensity, and strong sustainability, including: 1) On January 23, Dr. Ning Yi, the chief scientist of Midea, released the “20 Guidelines for the Prevention of New Coronaviruses in the Home”, analysis of the big data of the epidemic, etc.It played a role in guiding residents ‘scientific prevention and control and alleviating residents’ panic and worry. 2) On January 26, more than 600 medical personnel from medical examination centers across the country responded to the government ‘s call and entered highways, railway stations, airports, and passenger stations to undertake passenger temperature detection and other control tasks. Some medical personnel in Wuhan and other places volunteered to make upEpidemic frontline. 3) On January 27, we participated in the first batch of new types of coronavirus nucleic acid detection reagents and instruments to assist Wuhan with a total of 4.60,000 servings. 4) On January 28, Meinian United Elephant Doctor, Youyi, Wanliyun, People’s Daily, and Health Times took the lead in providing free public consultation, remote reading consultation, psychological consultation and other services for the public. 5) On February 8th, Meinian Health launched the “Online Free Clinic” service on the Ali Health platform. The entrance includes Alipay, Taobao client, etc. The 10 expert doctors of the free clinic came from Meinian 5 provincial companies, 8 branchesIn the company, the number of free clinics for the first time exceeded 300. 6) From February 10th, the company launched the “Special Screening Appointment Service for Returning to Work and Returning to Work and Preventing Epidemics”. The test plan includes “new coronavirus nucleic acid test” and “deep lung examination”, which can effectively screen healthy people who return to workPatients with asymptomatic infection. 7) Meinian emergency mobilized medical staff to support Hubei. A total of 2672 medical staff were willing to join the expiry date, accounting for about 10% of the company’s total medical staff.The 300 elites who have been recruited will be on the 20th of February and will be in two batches of charter flights to reinforce the frontline of the Wuhan epidemic. Mei Nian’s series of anti-disease prevention, as well as scientifically guide the military and civilian prevention and control, is also an important component of the fight against the epidemic, which has greatly enhanced Mei Nian’s healthy brand image and public image.With the gradual resumption of work at health check-up centers in various places, the company will resume normal operations relatively quickly. At the same time, considering the diversion and synergy of the Ali e-commerce platform, the company’s performance is highly certain. Profit forecast: optimistic about the speeding up of performance from 2020 and Ali to open up the company’s long-term growth space, it is expected to return to mother in 19-21 respectively8.5 billion, 12 billion (40% year-on-year), 15.600 million (yoy 30%), corresponding PE is 63/45/34 times, maintain the buy rating, it is recommended to actively deploy! Risk reminder: In the epidemic prevention and control stage, there is uncertainty about the time requirements of outpatient departments for health supervision departments in various places.
Guanglianda (002410): Yunhua’s Final Results and Estimated Double Flight BIM Blue Ocean Travel Opens New Growth Space
The company is a leader in traditional cost software and a pioneer in building digitalization.
The company has more than ten businesses including engineering cost, engineering construction, engineering information, etc. Nearly 100 products have gradually provided professional application software for more than 200,000 enterprises, millions of professional engineering technology and management personnel.
Among them, the engineering cost accounts for 70%, and the domestic cities account for more than 60%. The engineering 成都桑拿网 construction ratio continues to increase, showing a good growth trend.
Construction cost: A strong customer base helps cloud transformation, and the annual fee model improves cash flow and smooths revenue.
Leading superior productivity companies have accumulated high-quality customers and merged a new round of inventory cycles in 2019 to help the cloud transformation continue to advance.
In 2017, the annual fee model confirmed revenue. In 2018, cloud computing products were released. The pilot area was expanded to 11 regions. In 2019, 80% of the country’s transformation will be completed.
The activation of existing users and the replacement of pirated users are expected to generate about 2 to 3 billion cash flows per year after the transition.
The annual fee model smooths the report income, and the lighter sales 淡水桑拿网 model reduces the selling expenses.
Engineering construction: BIM growth has doubled into an important engine, and the industry’s blue ocean opens up room for growth.
At present, the domestic BIM industry is still in the early stages of development, with low penetration and large space. We believe that Guanglianda relies on a large number of high-quality customers accumulated in engineering costs to overcome the industry-leading independent research and development technology, prompting it to travel in the BIM blue ocean market and quickly grab moreShares.
In addition, the BIM business is still dominated by product forms at this stage. In the future, the company will enter the mature stage to further increase the cloudification effect. We believe that the construction of Guanglianda Project is expected to continue the style of project cost and become the industry leader to enjoy the opportunity market space.
Based on the transition between Autodesk and Adobe, we have achieved both performance and estimates.
Autodesk is the most direct benchmark of Guanglianda. In 2016, the sales of traditional software packages were terminated. The pain period has now passed and subscription revenue has doubled.
The discount attracted users to convert, and then stabilized before returning to both volume and price.
Adobe used cloudification to create greater glory, launched cloud transformation in 2013, and successively launched CC and DC cloud services. Since then, Adobe ‘s performance has broken through with estimates.
The income growth rate has been expanding year by year, and the expense ratio has continued to decline from a high point, and has continued to rise all the way, and has cumulatively increased more than 16 times since 2013.
We believe that Guanglianda will be the next Autodesk or Adobe. After cloudification, it will finally achieve performance and estimate Shuangfei.
Earnings forecast: We expect the company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 to be 0.
41 yuan, 0.
48 yuan and 0.
59 yuan, maintain “buy” rating.
Risk reminder: The progress of construction business is affected by the new construction of downstream real estate, and there is uncertainty; the transfer of cloud business will put pressure on the company’s short-term profits.
Macalline (601828): 19Q1 net profit + 11% new retail exploration to enhance store empowerment value
[Event]The company released the first quarter report of 2019, and reported that it actually achieved revenue of 35.30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.37%, net profit attributable to mothers13.10,000 yuan, an increase of 11 in ten years.14%, an increase of 5 in the next ten years.83% (mainly changes in the fair value of investment real estate, investment income and capital occupation fees); cash flow from operating activities.1.6 billion (five) S. 18Q1 is -1.08 billion). [Comment]1) Profits are under pressure due to rising expense ratio.① Revenue: Ten-year growth in self-operated businesses.1% to 20.6 ppm, it is expected that the commission management business will continue to maintain high growth to drive overall performance; ② Cost: The overall gross profit margin will increase by 0.4pct to 70.9%, while the gross profit of self-operated business increases by 0 every year.4pct to 78.3%; ③ Expenses: Expense rate increased by 4 during the reporting period.8 points to 33.8%, of which sales / management (including R & D) / financial expense ratio increased by 1.5/0.6 / 2,7pct to 10.5% / 10.5% / 12.8%; ④ Stores: It is reported that the number of newly added self-operated stores will increase from 1 to 81, and the number of stores under management will increase from 2 to 2西安耍耍网30. 2) Refined operation & smart retail enhance store empowerment value.① Fine operation enhances drainage capacity.Under the trend of traffic fragmentation, the company actively improved the operating capacity of stores and enhanced terminal drainage capacity; ② Promoted smart marketing and enhanced traffic conversion capabilities. The company cooperated with Tencent to launch the IMP smart marketing system, empowering terminal stores to help them achieve precise marketing and improve traffic conversion rate; ③ real estate sales have picked up.The floor space of commercial buildings sold increased by 1 in March 2019.75%, a slight recovery, Macalline’s performance growth in advance of the industry recovery and further improvement; ④ implementation of employee stock ownership plan and share buyback support.The company 杭州桑拿 launched the first and second phases of employee shareholding plans in January and February 2019, respectively. The company plans to formulate and implement stable and feasible specific measures. Executives are expected to increase their holdings by a total of two.18 ppm-2.6.1 billion. 3) We believe that the company is actively embracing new retail, the value of offline channels is prominent, the potential of the flooded home platform is huge, and the future performance is stable. It is expected to usher in a double-click from Davis. It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.46/1.66/1.85 yuan, the corresponding PE is 9 respectively.2/8.1/7.3 times, maintaining the highly recommended level. Risk reminder: Real estate continues to be in a downturn, and the prosperity of the home industry has dropped sharply.
China Merchants Shipping (601872) covers for the first time: the bottom of the oil tanker has been expected to recover
The oil tanker started the upward cycle, and the first coverage was given to the “Buy” rating. After undergoing a challenging 2018, the supply and demand structure of the beneficiary industry improved. We believe that the oil tanker sector has come out of the bottom and is about to usher in a new round of upward cycle.
We expect the company’s oil tanker business to usher in a profitable repair in 2019 after a trough last year.
In fact, the long-term long-term long-term transportation agreement of the dry bulk and LNG transportation business of the company will continue to contribute stable income.
We predict that the company’s EPS for 2019/2020/2021 will be 0.
58 yuan; based on 1.
9x 2019 EPB estimates, corresponding to the target price range of 6.
88 yuan; the first coverage is given a “buy” rating.
International oil transportation: the bottom has passed, and the restoration will end soon. At the end of 2018, China Merchants Ships has a total of 48 VLCCs, and another 5 VLCC orders will be delivered in 2019. The company’s VLCC fleet ranks among the largestWorld number one.
The company’s profitability is affected by short-term fluctuations in freight rates.
Driven by improved demand for oil transportation and the International Maritime Organization’s 2020 Low Sulfur Order, the industry is on the verge of recovery.
Affected by the new shipping this year, we expect the VLCC capacity supply growth rate in 2019 to be 0 from the previous year.
1% rose to 4.
9%, demand growth from 2.
9% rebounded to 4.
In 2020, VLCC supply and demand growth rates are expected to be 2 respectively, benefiting from the reduction of new ships and the dismantling of potentially old ships.
0% and 6.
Benefiting from the increase in freight, we expect the operating profit of the company’s oil transportation segment to increase to 12.
5 ppm (1 year ago).
Dry bulk shipping: The world’s largest VLOC shipowner, long-term agreement locks in revenue until the end of 2018. The company operates a total of 24 vessels of very large ore vessels (VLOC), and 11 new vessels have been ordered. It is expected to be delivered in 2019-2020.The VLOC fleet ranks first in the world.
The company’s VLOC ships have a long-term transportation agreement with Vale for more than 10 years and 20-27 years, and the revenue is locked, and it is not affected by the cyclical change of the current dry bulk transportation market.
Along with the company’s new ship delivery and capacity growth, we expect the company’s dry bulk shipping segment operating profit to increase steadily to 7 in 2019.
0 ppm, an increase of 4% per year.
LNG transportation: The industry demand is improving, and the project ship model locks in revenue. In contrast to the continuous breakthrough of international oil transportation business, the company’s LNG (liquefied gas) transportation business will maintain stable 深圳spa会所 profitability.
All the company’s LNG ships have been chartered for 10-15 years.
As of the end of 2018, the company has a total of 14 LNG vessels in joint venture, and another 7 new vessel orders are expected to be delivered in 2019.
We expect the company’s investment income from LNG business in 2019 to be approximately 2.
Benefiting from the continued growth of China’s natural gas imports, as one of the large domestic LNG transport companies, China Merchants Shipping is expected to continue to benefit from future LNG import projects that will be supplemented.
The first coverage is given a “Buy” rating with a target price range of 6.
88 yuan We predict the company’s operating profit for the oil transportation business in 2019/2020/202112.5/21.
800 million; operating profit of dry bulk business is 7.
Overall, we forecast the company’s net profit attributable to its parent in 2019/2020/202116.
4 billion, ROE 7.
6% / 11.
3% / 13.
We are based on 1.
9x 2019E PB estimate (average PB of three years in company history.
5x +1 standard deviation.
3, 2019E BVPS 3.
62 yuan), corresponding to the target price range of 6.
88 yuan, given a “buy” rating.
Risk reminders: 1) Freight growth is lower than expected; 2) Dismantling volume of old ships is lower than expected; 3) Demand growth is lower than expected; 4) IMO low sulfur regulations are postponed; 5) Political risks.
Jiang Chao: The bond market remains unchanged, the equity market will gradually return to performance-driven
Resolving local debt, interest rate hubs decline (Haitong Bond Weekly Exchange and Thinking No. 311, Jiang Chao, etc.) Summary Last week the bond market increased slightly, and the national bond interest rate fell by 4bp. AAA, AA grade corporate bonds and urban investment debt interest rates declinedAt 5, 3, and 6 bp, convertible bonds fell by 1.
Economic growth has bottomed out, and a new modest rebound.
The economic start in 19 years was not good. In the first two months, the industrial growth rate was subdivided. The income growth rate of industrial enterprises declined, and the profit growth rate turned negative.
However, since March, the manufacturing PMI has rebounded sharply. At the same time, the coal consumption growth rate of the six major groups has changed from negative to positive. The national crude steel output growth rate is still high, which means that the industrial economy has improved significantly in March.
In February 19, the CPI fell by one.
The one-and-a-half year low of 5% triggered a reduction in the risk of deflation.
However, since entering March, pig prices have risen sharply, or they have jumped sharply due to the emergence of 3 or 4 months.
However, due to the further decrease in the scale of growth since April, the non-food prices of PPI and CPI will be lowered. Therefore, in view of the gradual reduction in the future, despite the upward pressure, it is beneficial to maintain at 2.
Initial suspension was suspended and currency exchange rates rebounded.
Last week extended the suspension of the reverse repurchase operation again, withdrawing 110 billion currencies in the open market, and cumulatively withdrawing currency of 6.90 billion in March.
However, at the beginning of the year, it was said that the fiscal expenditure at the end of the month broke through and the market liquidity was still abundant.
Based on the experience of the past two years, fiscal lending in March this year is expected to reach 700 billion yuan. Therefore, in summary, the over-reserve ratio of financial institutions in March should be basically the same as that in February, at 1.
About 7%, higher than the same period last year.
3%, but lower than 2 last December.
The Democratic Prime Minister stated that he would not follow the old path of flooding, and President Yanchang Yi said that this year, China’s reserve reduction rate will be reduced, which means that there is limited room for further easing of monetary policy.
In addition, the short-term Chinese economy has entered a bottom-up period and gradually recovered from a low level.
We believe that monetary policy will remain accommodative in the future, but the degree of easing may be lower than in the first quarter, so the currency exchange rate center may also be slightly higher than the low in the first quarter.
To resolve local debts, the interest rate center fell.
On March 12, this year, Hao Yuzhu, general manager of Shanxi Traffic Control Group, stated at a 2019 working conference that Shanxi Financial Control Group and seven financial institutions led by the China Development Bank Shanxi Branch successfully signed a syndicated loan of US $ 260.7 billion, reducing financing 北京夜生活网 costs and effectively preventingEliminate hidden dangers of regional financial risks.
In February and March of this year, Bloomberg and other media reported that CDB was working with Zhenjiang, Xiangtan and other regions to promote the resolution of hidden debts.
In China, although a local government debt swap has been conducted in 15 years, in theory the local government debt has all become explicit.
However, considering the special national conditions above, there are still a large number of hidden debts in various places. These debts do not theoretically belong to local government debts, but they still have inextricable relationships with local governments, so that financing platforms pass fake PPP., Debts due to illegal guarantee commitments, etc.
These local government hidden debts usually have high interest rates. At the same time, due to the endorsement of government implicit guarantees, the actual default risk is extremely low, so the existence of government hidden debts has greatly increased the market’s central interest rate level.
However, if the high-interest local government hidden debt can be replaced by a low-interest CDB loan or other debt, it is actually equivalent to reducing the true risk-free interest rate.
The bond market fluctuated and allocated credit to debt.
Looking ahead, we believe that the debt market will remain volatile: favorable factors for the debt market include the deceleration of the overseas economy, the US interest rate hike is expected to decline, and the global government bond interest rates are collectively falling.
The unregulated domestic regulation of shadow banking, coupled with the active disposal of local hidden debts, has helped to lower China’s central interest rate level.
At the same time, the surge in pig prices has gradually rebounded, the domestic economy has entered a bottom-up period, the downward speed has slowed down, and the unprecedented reduction in tax and fee rates has reduced the need for further monetary easing.
At the end of the millennium, the currency continued to be withdrawn, and the currency interest rate center rose significantly, which is also not conducive to increasing interest rates.
In terms of the types of bond market allocations, we still maintain the priority of convertible bonds and credit bonds, followed by interest rate bonds.
With the gradual development of wide finance and wide credit, corporate profits are expected to bottom out, which is beneficial to the stock market and credit debt, while interest rate debt will remain low and fluctuate.
I. Monetary interest rate: Funds stably cross quarterly 1) Currency interest rate differentiation.
Under the quarter-end effect, the interest rate of the money market is differentiated, funds are tight across seasons, and overnight funds are slightly loose.
Last week, the open market reverse repurchase expired 110 billion yuan, with a net return of 110 billion yuan.
The average R007 is 47BP to 3.36%, R001 average goes down 30BP to 2.
The average value of DR007 is 6BP to 2.
77%, the average of DR001 is 32BP to 2.
2) Inverted US debt yields and domestic monetary policy.
The Treasury yield curve reflects changes in US monetary policy and economic expectations.
The current U.S. Treasury yield inversion is to be followed up or repaired through short-term downside, which indicates that a new round of interest rate cuts may begin in the future.
Inverted U.S. Treasury yield curves are also often a reliable signal of a recession.
The recession of the US economy in 1980, 1981, 1990, 2001, and 2007 occurred after 17, 11, 18, 14, 23 months of the inverted yield curve, which means that the term spread turned negative.One or two years later, according to this reasoning, the US economy’s recurrence of recession will be around 2020-2021.
The short-term internal national monetary policy is still mainly to resolve internal contradictions. If the US economy gradually declines in the next 1-2 years, the United States will open the road of monetary easing again, which will still have an impact on domestic monetary policy.
3) Funds will warm up.
Although the recent budget has reduced public market funding, under the background of a large amount of financial investment at the end of March, the end of the quarterly assessment, and no net withdrawal in the open market in April, the market capital will expand and loose in early April, and the currency exchange rate may continue to fall.
Second, interest rate debt: The bond market remains volatile. 1) The bond market has risen.
Affected by the Federal Reserve’s suspension of interest rate hikes and the downward impact of US bond yields, the domestic bond market grew.
Last week the one-year Treasury note closed at 2.
44%, down 3BP from the previous week; 10-year government bonds closed at 3.
07%, down 4BP from the previous week.
The one-year CDB bond closed at 2.
55%, down 5BP from the previous week; 10-year China Development Bond closed at 3.
58%, down 4BP from the previous week.
2) Supply is increasing and demand is weak.
Last week, book-entry government bonds were issued with US $ 10 billion and US $ 20 billion due; policy financial bonds were US $ 91.1 billion and US $ 0 billion due; local government debt was US $ 311.5 billion and US $ 76.3 billion due.
A total of 412.6 billion interest rate bonds were issued, an increase of 194.7 billion from the previous month, and a net supply of 316.3 billion, an increase of 183.2 billion from the previous month.
Certificate of Deposit Net Issue -3081.
400 million, a decrease of 5764 from the previous month.
6ppm, the issue rate of 3M certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks was 16 lower than the previous week.
3) Short-term economic improvement.
Since March, the economy has improved, and the manufacturing PMI has risen to 50.
5% above the line.
The terminal demand has shown an improvement, but there is still some differentiation. The growth rate of land sales has improved, but the difference between the first and second lines and the third and fourth lines has continued to expand.The growth rate of energy coal rebounded, and the operating rates of the automobile, steel, and chemical industries also reset and rebounded.
4) The pattern of bond market shocks remains unchanged.
From the perspective of the domestic economic fundamentals, the economy is currently bottoming out and can continue to recover rapidly.
From a policy perspective, the focus of monetary policy in the future is to unblock the monetary policy mechanism and reduce the room for conventional relaxation, while the positive fiscal policies such as tax and fee reduction will underpin the economy in the future.
Fundamentals and policies are not conducive to the bond market. The short and long ends of the bond market lack downward momentum, but the loose environment of global currencies supports China’s interest rate to remain low.
Taken together, we believe that the bond market will remain volatile in the future.
Third, credit bonds: Demand is still supported 1) Credit bond yields have fallen.
The yield of credit bonds followed the downturn last week. The average yield of AAA corporate bonds fell by 5BP, the average yield of AA corporate bonds fell by 3BP, and the yield of urban investment bonds dropped by 6BP.
2) The scale of financial management is stable, and the proportion of bonds has increased.China Wealth Management announced the 2018 financial management report, ending the bank’s non-guaranteed financial management balance at the end of 1822.
04 trillion, compared with the end of 2017 (22.
(17 trillion), a slight decline, and capital guaranteed financial management does not meet the new requirements of asset management, and no longer counted.
In asset allocation of wealth management products, bonds accounted for 53.
35% by the end of 2017 (42.
(19%) increased significantly, while the proportion of cash and bank deposits increased from 13.
91% excellence dropped to 5.
75%, non-standard proportion from 16.
22% rose slightly to 17.
23%, or it may be related to the fact that the guaranteed capital management is no longer included in the statistics. Assuming that the original guaranteed capital management non-standard allocation is 0, the balance of the non-standard assets of the financial allocation decreased by 1 trillion, which is in line with the fact that the non-standard shrinkage.
3) Demand for credit bond allocation is still supported.
After the new rules of asset management, the rapid growth of bank wealth management is no longer possible, and it is still likely to be compressed before the end of the transition period in 2020. However, the impact on the allocation of credit bonds is not so great.Under the same circumstances, the non-standard proportion will continue to decline, the proportion of cash and bank deposits will continue to gradually increase under the pressure of yield, and the proportion of credit and debt allocation may continue to rise; instead, the bank’s on-balance sheet demand for credit and debt will also be supported.Especially high-grade credit bonds where credit risk allows.
Fourth, convertible bonds: pay attention to the performance of annual reports 1) The convertible bond index fell.
The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell by one last week.
42%, with an average daily volume of 64.
500 million, down 17% from the previous month.
The total index of convertible bonds we calculated (including public offering EB) dropped by 1.
03%; during the same period, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.
01%, the GEM Index fell by 0.
02%, SSE 50 rose by 1.
Each bond 28 rose 117, the main stock 42 rose 1 flat 102 fell, Zheshang convertible bonds and other 4 convertible bonds listed.
The top five gainers were Kangtai Convertible Bonds (23.
09%), Tianma convertible bonds (12.
01%), Shenglu convertible bonds (4.
75%), Zheshang convertible bonds (3.
64%), Kaifa convertible bonds (3.
2) 7 convertible bonds and 1 public offering of EB.
Last week, Asia-Pacific Pharmaceuticals, Qixingxingchen, Dafeng Industrial, Hyundai Pharmacy, Precision Testing Electronics, the common people, Straits Environmental Protection 7 convertible bonds and 19 Dongchuang EB issued.
Rong Sheng Environmental Protection (3.
3 trillion) convertible bonds received approval, Shanxi Securities (28 trillion) terminated the issuance of convertible bonds, Central Environmental Protection (2.
9 trillion), Wen Can (8 trillion) convertible bonds passed the meeting, Dechuang Environmental Protection (2 trillion) convertible bonds were recovered by the CSRC.
In addition, last week, Zijin Bank (4.5 billion), Huaibei Mining (27.
58 ppm), 8 companies including China Investment Capital (45 ppm) announced plans to convert debt.
3) Pay attention to the performance of the annual report.
Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index shrank, and the decline was larger than that of the underlying stocks.
In terms of individual bonds, there was a rise and a decline but a lot of declines. Among them, the stocks and high-priced bonds fell in cracks. From the perspective of the industry, it was a period of deeper TMT and consumer sectors.
In addition, in recent weeks is the intensive disclosure period of the annual report. Successive performances that have fallen short of expectations have led to a decline in convertible bonds.
After the estimated repair in the first quarter, the equity market will gradually return to performance-driven, and the conversion of bonds requires more attention to performance.You can focus on the new bonds that have recently been listed (the new bonds have all released performance reports), and the uncertainty of performance is relatively relative.
In terms of strategy, focus on digging into areas where the increase in the previous period is not high, or have recently been supplemented.
Such as TMT medium and low-priced coupons, banks, brokers, and consumption.
The mid-to-long term is optimistic about the convertible bond market, and everybody can pay attention to it.
Risk reminder: fundamentals change, monetary policy is not up to expectations, and the funding side changes significantly.